The Oregon law essentially handles pot like alcohol, and the regulation and taxation of marijuana will be under the aegis of the state's alcohol commission. It will probably raise a lot of tax money.
Summary: Currently, cultivation, possession, delivery, sale of marijuana are unlawful, excepting regulated production, possession, use of medical marijuana. Measure allows production, processing, delivery, possession, sale of marijuana to adults, licensed, regulated by Oregon Liquor Control Commission (OLCC). Marijuana producer, processor, wholesaler may deliver "marijuana items" (defined) only to/on licensed retail premises. OLCC collects tax imposed on marijuana producer at different rates for marijuana flowers, leaves, immature plant. "Homegrown marijuana" (defined) not regulated, taxed. Tax revenues, fees fund OLCC suspense account, Oregon Marijuana Account distributed: 40% to Common School Fund; 20% for mental health/alcohol/drug services; 15% for state police; 20% for local law enforcement; 5% to Oregon Health Authority. "Marijuana paraphernalia" (defined) excluded from "drug paraphernalia" laws. Other provisions [5]
That's a nice touch: 20% of the tax revenue will be devoted to mental health/alcohol/drug services. I mean, why not? And 40% to the Common School Fund -generally speaking, taxes on our vices often wind up funding public education, like California's lottery. A realistic nod to the inevitable, always laudable in these hypocritical times.
It is sometimes reported (say, by the Emerald Triangle News, the voice of the Norcal ganja farmer), that California's own similar initiative was voted down in part because of an ad campaign financed by the - Norcal ganja farmers. Well, that's just good business. Just as the Mafia were ardent supporters of Prohibition, so the underground pot growers understand the basic law of scarcity, demand and price. Illegality keeps the price up and the tax collectors away. Granted, it invites the unwanted attention of the DEA, but the pot growers have thrived despite such nuisances.
One article I read in the aforementioned ET News while "researching" this blog post observed hopefully that Oregon would now be a brand new market for the Triangle's black market dope. This strikes me as wishful thinking raised to the level of whistling past the graveyard. When Portland becomes the New Amsterdam, why, exactly, would Oregonians want to buy the Triangle's overpriced, environmentally-dubious shit?
Rather, this situation presents what Mr. Krugman would call a "natural experiment" in economics. Oregon growers can get in the legal business of growing dope (just as if they were vineyard owners or winemakers) by paying $1,000 a year for a license. It all becomes legal next July, 2015. My guess is that the line at the Dope Window at the Oregon Liquor Control Commission is already forming; it will make the lines for Springsteen tickets look puny in comparison. Oregon dope will be organic and non-GMO. Although admittedly the actual cannabis will probably be inferior to the Norcal variety, because of climate factors, Oregonians have lived for decades under the delusion that the wine they make is drinkable, so this should prove no hurdle to brisk sales.
In the relatively short run, what will actually happen is that Oregon's breakthrough will lead inevitably to California's passage of its own initiative, on which, ironically, the Oregon law was based. The farmers of the Emerald Triangle will then have a great deal of competition all over the Golden State. Prices will drop, tax collections will ramp up, and our public schools, full of dope-faded kids smoking up the parents' stash, will be flush with cash.
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